INFOINDONESIAINEWS.COM | SABTU, 5 OKTOBER 2024 – If Joe Biden were to step aside, who would likely emerge as the frontrunner? This issue surfaced recently among the president’s team, who sought to quell unrest within the Democratic Party after his debate performance last month, which one Democrat put it as an “unmitigated disaster” and a “slow-motion car crash” by another.
Speculation about Joe Biden’s capacity to win in coming November— or serve an additional four years— persists amid worries about his age and health. That’s the reason why.
But American politics today, much like in Indonesia, first and foremost is about “Live by the electability, die by the electability.” Back in 2020, Democrats chose Joe Biden because they thought he was the safest candidate to beat Donald Trump. They were right, but now his perceived electability has nosedived.
Take the national polls. Before last month’s debate, Trump led Biden by 1 point among likely voters in the CBS News/YouGov poll. After the debate, his lead has increased to 2 points, though this remains within the margin of error.
NBC News’ Alex Seitz-Wald was quoted as saying, “Though modest and within their margins of error, polls have found some movement in Trump’s direction. Biden’s fundraising has weakened. And the Cook Political Report, the well-respected electoral handicappers whose analysis is treated as gospel in Washington, shifted six states toward Trump in its forecast.”
“It moved Arizona, Georgia and Nevada— all swing states Biden won in 2020— from ‘toss up’ to ‘lean Republican,’ while it shifted bluer swing states Minnesota and New Hampshire from ‘likely Democrat’ to ‘lean Democrat.’”
That’s after the debate, but we have yet to see the fallout from the Trump shooting on July 13 in Butler, Pennsylvania. With three months remaining until Tuesday, November 5, 2024, there’s still a political “terra incognita” ahead for Democratic Party.
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So, returning to the hypothetical question: Who from the Democratic Party would step in if Biden were to step aside?
Several potential frontrunners might emerge from the Democratic Party. Vice President Kamala Harris would be a prominent contender given her current position. Other possible candidates include California Governor Gavin Newsom, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders might also be in the mix, along with other emerging Democratic leaders.
The most likely candidate would be Kamala Harris. The recent political dynamics within the Democratic Party speak for themselves.
But, should the next president of the U.S.A be a woman? Or the question should even be: Will Americans ever elect a female president?
I don’t think any of the Democratic Party’s crème de la crème would be naive enough to believe, “We got the first Black man into the White House, now we’re going to get the first woman!” It’s not about the interest of the Democratic Party, but the American people.
The fact is, most of the American public already are ready for a woman president. In 2016, two significant milestones marked Hillary Clinton’s achievements. First, she secured the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination and, second, lost the election to Republican Donald Trump later on.
These conflicting outcomes— her nomination and subsequent loss— do not suggest that Hillary Clinton was undesirable to the American public due to her gender being a woman. Rather, her defeat stemmed from the perception that Trump’s political promises were more appealing to voters than those of Hillary’s.
While Donald Trump maintained a consistent and memorable slogan of “Make America Great Again,” Hillary Clinton had them varied throughout her run. She initially used “Hillary for America,” then shifted to “Forward Together” (featured on her campaign bus). Her slogans changed again to “Fighting for Us,” “I’m with Her,” “Stick it to the Man by Voting for a Woman,” and “Stronger Together.” Additionally, she employed “Love Trumps Hate,” which some viewed as satirical, and “When They Go Low, We Go High,” borrowed from Michelle Obama.
The rationale behind her defeat was rooted in rational public evaluations of political platforms, not emotional responses related to her gender.
For the American public, the next President of the United States should be competent, selfless, and a genuine patriot who prioritizes the good of America and Americans. They could care less what sex the president is. Those men in the street “don’t give half a rat’s fuzzy ass”— please excuse the idiom— if it’s a black man, a white woman, a lesbian Hispanic, or a transgendered Muslim.
Indeed, the American people look forward to the day when a person who happens to be a woman, not because she is a woman, will be elected. There are many competent women who would do an excellent job as president.
Yet Kamala Harris needs to learn some lessons from Hillary Clinton’s blunder in 2016.
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When the Indonesian people elected Megawati Soekarnoputri as their first female president in the 1999 elections, it was amidst a pivotal shift from the General Soeharto’s New Order to the people’s Reform Order, and not driven by any gender issues.
The attempt to use gender to thwart Megawati’s presidency came from members of the political elite in the People’s Consultative Assembly (the MPR), not the Indonesian people. And this was another political game in the Indonesian presidential election system back then, after the people had cast their votes in the booth.
In 1999, the majority of the Indonesian public saw Megawati through the lens of competence, believing she could address the problems the nation was facing— not because she’s a woman. Similarly, in the 2024 presidential election, the Indonesian public stood the opposite of Megawati’s wish to nominate her daughter, Puan Maharani, as president. Puan’s shy of 2% electability speaks for itself— again, not because she’s a woman.
This demonstrates that political choices on a national scale, regardless of the country, tend to be rational. However, the dynamics of the campaign, with its various political maneuvers, can indeed be emotional. Sometimes even so irrational, especially when “gaslighting” and “social media post-truth” come into play, exploited by some intellectual vested interests.
— JHW, Yogyakarta, July 2024
By Source : Josef Herman Wenas. Journalist: Andre Vincent Wenas.
Editors by : LiesnaEgha
